Truisms are usually simple and here at Not To The Swift when it comes to handicapping I like to keep it simple.

One truism about the Belmont Stakes is that it's either won by the best horse or the only horse who could actually run a mile and a half.

In the first category we have horses like Afleet Alex, Empire Maker and Point Given. In the second category you have horses like Jazil, Sarava and Commendable.

I think this will be one of those years where the winner comes from the second category. So here's hoping another deserving Cajun jockey wins his first classic and that's why I pick Imawildandcrazyguy and Mark Guidry to the win the Belmont Stakes.

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